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Study: How Marriage Equality Affects Straight Couples
By Matt Baume
We’re counting down the days to a Supreme Court ruling on Prop 8, with just two weeks left before the end of the current term. A new survey analyzes the effect that marriage equality has on opposite sex-couples. And we have more national surveys on marriage, plus a look ahead to upcoming battleground states.
At the American Foundation for Equal Rights, I’m Matt Baume. Welcome to Marriage News Watch for June 17, 2013.
There’s only a few days left for the Supreme Court to rule on Prop 8. So far they’ve set aside June twentieth and twenty-fourth for rulings. But they could add more days as we get closer to the end of the month.
Visit AFER.org for an illustrated guide to the various ways the court could rule. And subscribe here you YouTube for breaking alerts on the case.
A new study shows the effect that marriage equality has on heterosexual marriage rates. And that effect is: none. The research from Portland State University examined marriage rates in states with marriage equality or strong civil unions, going back to 1988. Not surprisingly, they found no relationship between relationship recognition for LGBT couples and marriage rates for opposite-sex couples.
Meanwhile another national survey has shown growing support for marriage. This time it’s an ABC/Washington Post poll, with support at 57% to 40%. This is one of the largest margins ever, and suggests that the rate of growth in public support has remained generally consistent since beginning a rapid upward climb around 2006. The national levels of support and opposition are now almost exactly flipped from where they were in 2008, when Prop 8 passed.
And even with major federal news on the horizon, individual states continue to move closer to marriage. We may have major developments in the coming months from states like Oregon, Hawaii, Illinois, Colorado and now Michigan. Organizers there have announced their plan to bring marriage to the voters in 2014 or, more likely, in 2016. Polling in Michigan looks good, with an EPIC-MRA poll showing 55 percent support to 41 percent opposed.
But remember, we’re just days away from a ruling in the Prop 8 and DOMA cases, which will completely change the marriage equality landscape from coast to coast. We’ll have all the information you need when the ruling comes, including analysis and next steps. Subscribe here on YouTube and at AFER.org for alerts. And remember to like this video and share it with your friends.
At the American Foundation for Equal Rights, I’m Matt Baume. We’ll see you next week.
Leave a Comment June 18, 2013
Prop 8 Ruling is Just Days Away
By Matt Baume
We’re counting down the days to a Supreme Court ruling on Prop 8. Marriage may go to voters in Ohio, but there’s some dispute over timing. New polls show ongoing progress in California and across the nation. And New Mexico’s Attorney General addresses the challenges to the state’s marriage ban.
There’s only a few days left for the Supreme Court to rule on Prop 8. So far they’ve set aside June tenth, thirteenth, seventeenth, and twenty-fourth for rulings. But they could add more days as we get closer to the end of the month.
Visit AFER.org for an illustrated guide to the various ways the court could rule. And subscribe here you YouTube for breaking alerts on the case.
In a surprise announcement this week, FreedomOhio unveiled plans to bring marriage to the ballot in 2014. They also claimed to be working with Human Rights Campaign, Equality Ohio, Freedom to Marry, and various other organizations.
But within a few hours, those other groups sought to distance themselves from the move. According to various spokespeople, there has been conversation but no agreement on timing.
An Ohio ballot measure in 2014 would face tough challenges. Although polls show support growing and opposition falling, public opinion is still very close. For comparison, organizers in Oregon have announced plans for a ballot measure of their own in 2014. Polling there shows marriage with a lead of nearly ten percentage points. When Maine successfully brought marriage to the ballot, polling showed a lead of nearly fifteen points.
And new polling in California shows support is stronger than ever, with 55 percent in favor to 37 percent opposed.
National attitudes continue to trend in our favor, according to multiple new polls released last week. We have more data on marriage right now than ever before, which allows us to paint a highly precise picture of the growth in public support. We’ll be keeping a close eye to see how that trend is affected by the ruling on Proposition 8 expected before the end of the month.
Meanwhile in New Mexico last week, Attorney General Gary King called the state’s marriage laws “vulnerable to challenge.” The ACLU has already filed suit over the state’s refusal to issue marriage licenses. And last week a second couple filed a lawsuit of their own.
Minnesota has begun issuing marriage licenses. The first documents were issued last week, and take effect on August First.
Subscribe here on YouTube and at AFER.org for breaking news alerts on the Prop 8 case. And remember to like this video and share it with your friends.
Leave a Comment June 10, 2013
Marriage Loses in Illinois
By Matt Baume
Marriage loses in Illinois — for now?. Plus, more surveys show support for marriage continues to climb across the country. And lawmakers introduce not one, but four different bills to legalize marriage in Michigan. We’ll go over the differences and take a look at public opinion.
At the American Foundation for Equal Rights, I’m Matt Baume, and welcome to Marriage News Watch for June 3, 2013.
It was close, but Illinois just barely missed its chance to become the 13th state to legalize marriage equality. But of course, this is just a temporary setback. Polling in Illinois show that support for marriage is growing quickly. And opposition is shrinking even faster.
Meanwhile, we’ve picked up yet another major national survey that shows a majority of Americans favor the freedom to marry. This time it’s the Public Religion Research Institute, with 52% in favor and 43% opposed. This makes the 26th survey to show marriage at 50 percent or higher. It’s been three years since the opposition last polled over 50 percent.
Lawmakers have introduced four new bills to legalize marriage in Michigan. Each one tackles a different aspect of marriage. SJR W would repeal the state’s constitutional ban on marriage. SB 405 would repeal the state’s statutory ban on marriage. SB 406 would recognize gay and lesbian marriages from out of state. and SR 64 would call on the federal government to repeal DOMA. Polling looks good in Michigan, with recent surveys showing around 57% support for equality and 38% opposed.
Support for marriage in California continues to grow. It’s now at 56% in favor to 38% opposed, according to a new PPIC poll.
And marriage is now the law of the land in France. Weddings began last Wednesday across the country, the fifteenth to legalize the freedom to marry.
Could the United States be the sixteenth? The US Supreme Court rules on Prop 8 in less than one month, and they coulda legalize marriage equality from coast to coast.
Subscribe here on YouTube and at AFER.org for breaking news alerts on the case. You can help support the cause of equality by liking this video and sharing it with your friends.
At the American Foundation for Equal Rights, I’m Matt Baume. We’ll see you next week.
Leave a Comment June 3, 2013
