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Final State-By-State Polling on Marriage Ballot Measures
November 5, 2012
By Matt Baume
The election’s finally here. We’ll have everything you need to know about key marriage ballot measures both before and after the vote. Plus, a look ahead at some major post-election marriage equality milestones.
This is it — election week. Obviously, no one should ever have their rights put up to a popular vote. But anti-gay activists have left us with no other recourse in these states. While we pursue equality through the courts on the basis of Constitutional protection, these votes give us an opportunity to prove that public opinion has continued to turn in our favor.
So if you’re watching on Monday or Tuesday, pause the video and go vote. Especially if you live in one of the five crucial marriage equality states: Maine, Minnesota, Maryland, Washington, and Iowa. Visit AFER.org/election2012 for a roundup of what’s going on in each state, and how you can help get out the vote.
After the election, we’ll have a roundup of how the vote went in key states, and an analysis of what it means for the future of marriage.
The next major news will come from the US Supreme Court. They’re meeting on November 20 to decide whether to take multiple challenges to the Defense of Marriage Act and to Prop 8. Depending on how the court rules, we could be looking at marriage resuming in California this month.
You can be the first to know when that news comes. Visit AFER.org and subscribe here on YouTube to get breaking news alerts.
As we head into the final stretch, the vote in those marriage battleground states is still very close. The most encouraging polling is coming out of Maine, where our support has remained in the mid-fifties, with the opposition polling in the upper thirties.
In Washington and Maryland, polls put us in the low fifties and our opponents in the mid-forties. And it’s very tight in Minnesota, where both sides have remained tied in the upper forties. In that state, the proposed anti-gay constitutional amendment needs 50 percent to win.
In the past, pre-election surveys have overstated public support for the freedom to marry. But a lot has changed since the last time there was widespread voting on marriage. In particular, we now have 16 surveys showing a majority of Americans support the freedom to marry. This vote will be crucial test of the change in public opinion.
That’s important because we’ve got our work cut out for us long after this election. States like Colorado and Rhode Island are likely to face important debate over marriage in 2013, and we need to be ready for them.
Having technical problems? E-mail equalityontrial AT couragecampaign DOT org for assistance!
9 Comments Leave a Comment
1.
Anthony | November 5, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Why have there been no polls on Maryland?
2.
Seth from Maryland | November 5, 2012 at 1:03 pm
i dont know why no polls have come out lately, but i can tell you this, my wife and me just got back from being on a volunteer shift, the energy is high , we are going back here in a few hours, the general feeling is its going to be close like a razor thin close ,even possible recount ,but we feel we can pull it out
3.
Sammy | November 5, 2012 at 1:37 pm
I really hope you are right! Trying not to get my hopes too high but a 4 state sweep would be so rediculously amazing Id be out dancing in the street!
4.
Anthony | November 5, 2012 at 1:40 pm
I'm going to predict 51-49 in favor.
5.
Anthony | November 5, 2012 at 1:47 pm
I'd be willing to take a loss in MN and a win in the other three states….that way we can have 9 (10 if you count CA at the end of the month) states with full equality!
6.
Mark Mead-Brewer | November 5, 2012 at 4:17 pm
Ain't no way I'm getting any sleep tonight….the anxiety is just eating away at us terrible.
I don't want to keep living as a second class citizen!!!
We're planning on retiring in 8 more years and moving out of WA in search of warmer weather. How can we freely move across the country when only pockets of the country consider us more than mere room mates. UGH!!
Then past four years have been SO rough
7.
Straight Ally #3008 | November 5, 2012 at 4:50 pm
Mark, put your sleepless anxiety to good use! https://sites.google.com/a/marriageequality.org/2…
8.
Mark Mead-Brewer | November 6, 2012 at 7:30 am
All ready been doing that
9.
_BK_ | November 6, 2012 at 10:20 am
Oh goodness I hope we get CA by year's end. The wait has been long enough.
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