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New Polling From Key Marriage Battlegrounds
October 8, 2012
By Matt Baume
If you need some good news right now, look no further than the latest surveys on the freedom to marry. We’ve got a bunch of new poll numbers this week, and support is up across the board. But we’re not out of the woods yet in this election’s four key battleground states.
Let’s start in Washington state, where a referendum on the state’s proposed marriage equality law is just barely squeaking by for now with 56% support according to Survery USA. That’s exactly where support was a year ago.
But there’s been much more movement in Maine, where another marriage law is up for a vote. A Portland Press Herald survey shows support at 57% to 35% opposed. That’s a big jump from last year, when a Public Policy Polling survey showed 51% support to 42% opposed.
Maryland also faces a popular vote on marriage, and we’ve got a lead there as well. A Baltimore Sun survey shows 49% support the measure to 39% opposed.
Washington, Maine, Maryland, and Minnesota will all be voting on marriage in just four weeks, and although our poll numbers are encouraging, they may not tell the whole story. Surveys tend to overstate support for the freedom to marry, so our narrow lead may be narrower than it looks.
Now is a crucial time to get involved in those races. Visit AFER.org/election2012 for ways that you can help protect marriage equality in those four states.
Let’s turn now to states that may face marriage fights in the coming year.
A WPRI survey in Rhode Island shows 56% support the freedom to marry, with 36% opposed. In Illinois, 81% of Catholics support relationship recognition, according to the Pal Simon Public Policy Institute. That includes 41% who support marriage, and 40% for limited civil unions.
In Nebraska, 32% of voters support marriage and 22% are for civil unions, according to an Omaha World-Herald survey. And a new survey from NBC Latino shows that 60% of Latinos support marriage equality. That’s slightly above the 54% support that the National Council de La Raza found in April of 2012.
Finally this week an anonymous donor has given two million dollars to the National Organization for Marriage. NOM has kept the identify of many of their donors secret. The organization recently lost a lawsuit over that secrecy and is now required to identify their funding sources in Maine, but so far have not released the information. Meanwhile, NOM has launched a series of anti-gay ads in key battleground states. You can visit AFER.org for a response to the statements in those ads.
Those are the headlines. Remember to visit afer.org/election2012 to help protect the freedom to marry in those key battleground states. And subscribe on YouTube for breaking news on the Prop 8 case.
Having technical problems? E-mail equalityontrial AT couragecampaign DOT org for assistance!
9 Comments Leave a Comment
1.
Straight Ally #3008 | October 8, 2012 at 8:07 pm
Why? Why is NOM allowed to flout election laws with impunity? Why haven't they been slapped with some sort of injunction by the courts? I truly don't get it, can someone enlighten me?
2.
Seth from Maryland | October 8, 2012 at 8:43 pm
Minnesota marriage amendment narrowly trails
-PPP's newest poll on Minnesota's amendment to ban gay marriage finds it running slightly behind, with 46% of voters planning to support it and 49% opposed. That represents a 4 point shift compared to a month ago when it led for passage 48-47.
The movement over the last month has been with independent voters. Where they supported the amendment 51/42 in September, they've now almost flipped and oppose it by a 52/42 margin. Women (43/51) are stronger in their opposition to it than men (49/47) are in their support. Most of the margin against the amendment is being provided by younger voters who say they plan to vote against it 53/38.
3.
Seth from Maryland | October 8, 2012 at 8:44 pm
In general 47% of voters in the state say they support gay marriage to 43% who are opposed. And 74% of voters, including even 52% of Republicans, support some form of legal recognition for gay couples either in the form of marriage or civil unions.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/m…
4.
Seth from Maryland | October 8, 2012 at 8:46 pm
damn , its so tight in this race , i really hope our ads are able to combat nom lies
5.
devon | October 9, 2012 at 5:32 am
Now that Romney is surging in all national polls, I'm concerned that his coattails will extend to state votes on marriage equality.
But I'm most concerned about the DOMA lawsuits awaiting supreme court consideration.
Romney's repeated pledges to defend DOMA would cause DOJ to switch positions and aline with the republicans hateful views on equality. That would likely occur before any arguments before the supreme court.
Would DOMA consideration be delayed to allow DOJ to issue new briefs?
6.
Jay | October 9, 2012 at 6:23 am
Devon's question is one I have considered as well. In the horrible event that Romney is elected, can the DOJ then tell SCOTUS that they have changed their position and file new briefs in support of DOMA despite having argued against it in earlier briefs and in the lower courts?
7.
Reformed | October 9, 2012 at 6:38 am
Would really like to know the answer to this. Difficult to find information on where things stand. Where is Fred Karger these days?
8.
Straight Dave | October 9, 2012 at 9:58 am
They've already done that at least once already – with the Gill case in the 1st circuit. DOJ argued the opposite position from what they did in the district court after Obama and Holder changed their minds. It's really too bad if it happens again, but at the end of the day SCOTUS will make their own decision and perhaps discount the govt's position as "just politics".
9.
Jay | October 10, 2012 at 6:31 am
Thanks, Straight Dave.
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