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Dueling marriage equality press conferences in Maryland, Polls Tighten in Maine
September 21, 2012
By Jacob Combs
As Metro Weekly‘s Poliglot blog reports, two competing press conferences will take place today in Maryland at exactly the same time, with both supporters and opponents of marriage equality seeking to make their case to the public. From Poliglot:
The initial press conference, set for 11 a.m. Friday at the National Press Club in D.C. and featuring leading African-American pastors such as former presidential candidate Rev. Al Sharpton, has been called to show support for Maryland’s Question 6, a measure that would allow same-sex couples to obtain a marriage licenses in the state. The other event, also set for 11 a.m. Friday, but in Arlington, Va., will be announcing the “Swing State Tour” of African-American pastors – including Alveda King, niece of the late civil rights icon Martin Luther King Jr. – opposing President Obama and [the] Democratic Party’s support for marriage equality.
As I’ve noted before here on P8TT, African-Americans account for approximately one quarter of the voting electorate in Maryland’s elections, so as the African-American vote on Question 6 goes, so may the measure’s chances for success. ”This is the first time such prominent African-American clergy have come together in support of marriage equality,” Marylanders for Marriage Equality spokesman Kevin Nix said in a statement. “This shows the tide is turning in every community, and is another example of the momentum within the African-American community, both in Maryland and nationally, for marriage equality.
In Maine, two new polls released yesterday show a tightening race for Question 1, which would bring marriage equality back to the state. A PPP poll found 52 percent support and 44 percent opposition, while a poll conducted by the Maine People’s Resource Center found a 53 to 43 percent split. Both polls found four percent of respondents were undecided. In a statement, PPP’s president, Dean Debnam, said, “Our experience in polling gay marriage is that if people say they’re undecided, it usually means they’re opposed to it. Despite the 8-point lead for passage, this should be seen as a very close race.”
The numbers show a tightening race when compared with a Portland Press Herald poll from June that found 57 percent support and 35 percent opposition, with eight percent undecided. In addition, internal polling conducted by Protect Marriage Maine, who opposes marriage equality, showed a 48-44 split with eight percent undecided.
Not surprisingly, the National Organization for Marriage (NOM) is jumping into the fray in Maine, donating $250,000 yesterday to Protect Marriage Maine’s political action committee. Opponents of equal marriage rights in Maine are facing a significant funding gap: they’ve raised between $100,000 and $200,000, while equality advocates have said they expect to raise at least $5 million.
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12 Comments Leave a Comment
1.
Stefan in CA | September 21, 2012 at 8:30 am
They need to put that 5 million to use immediatly and effectively. Even though it's way more $$ than the opposition has, like it or not, they have a history of having a strong impact on voters. It's not just how much you have, but how you put it to use. NOM's 250k today is just the beginning, and we all know from history what the ads will be like. It would be a shame to lose Maine.
2.
H8NSBAD | September 21, 2012 at 10:24 am
I can’t understand why NOM is allowed to donate anything after veing found guilty of violating Maine State Law on Financial Disclosure? Can someone fill me in?
3.
BradK | September 21, 2012 at 11:10 am
Interesting that NOM is still under a cloud of suspicion with both the state of Maine and the Feds regarding illegal (or at least illegally reported) contributions to the hate campaign last time 'round, yet is still allowed to essentially do it all over again this time.
4.
Wishful Thinking | September 21, 2012 at 12:12 pm
We could do a lot with $250k, that would have far greater impact that 5 or even 10 million. For example, if equality advocates hired the Pope to be in an TV ad, saying that the the church has evolved on same-sex marriage and he now supports equality for everyone, not just heterosexuals.
5.
grod | September 21, 2012 at 1:39 pm
In the 2009 Maine ballot initiative; of the 9 million+ raised, 61% was raised in favour of civil marriage equality. Equality advocates received money from over 10,000 donors, twelve times received by those opposed to equality. 58% of all money was raised from out-of-state.
6.
echamberlain | September 21, 2012 at 1:44 pm
If the events are about marriage in Maryland, why are they being held out of state?
7.
jason walter | September 21, 2012 at 2:38 pm
<img src="http://storeshopnow.com/mm/imada/otot.jpg"/> 5 million is not gonna be enough, you know.<img src="http://storeshopnow.com/mm/imada/toto2.jpg"/>
8.
Rich | September 21, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Just attended a fundraiser in Portland last night. Matt McTigue, campaign director informed the attendees that the polling is much more in our favor than these figures suggest. This is not to suggest that it won't be a tight race but a tremendous amount of support exists throughout the state for marriage equality and many do not get polled, particularly those who principally use cell-phones. Of course, now with NOM's infusion of 250 thousand, the lies will begin and more than ever we will need to be up front and vigilant.
9.
Mike in Baltimore | September 21, 2012 at 3:44 pm
If you look at a map, DC is much more central to all residents in Maryland than Baltimore or Annapolis.
And Arlington is just across the river from DC, so the same principle of centrality applies there, also. To be fair, the 'event' in Arlington was not strictly about marriage equality in Maryland, but a 'swing state' event for political purposes. I have a feeling that the marriage equality aspect was added at the last minute, since DC nor Maryland are considered 'swing states', but Virginia is.
Good question, though. National Harbor is just South of DC in PG County, MD; has good access from throughout the state; and has several very large spaces that could be used for events like this. As an example, there was a large, national, 'gamers' competition held at National Harbor just under a year ago.
10.
jamie | September 21, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Sounds like a politician telling people what they want to hear. The polling is what the polling is.
11.
grod | September 23, 2012 at 3:34 pm
In mid- October 2009, Public Policy Polling reported – for equality: 48%; against: 48%, undecided 4 %:, and Nov 1 it was 47/51/2. Will we see a similar pattern? Perhaps the breakout by counties and even by population centres in the recent polls might give insight where the change from 2009 can be expected to take place. In 2009, there were only four of the 16 counties where the majority of voters favoured equality. And there were on a few populations centres where a majority of voters favoured equality, Portland being strongly in favour.
12.
Mike in Baltimore | September 26, 2012 at 9:38 pm
"The polling is what the polling is."
Depends on whether the pollster doing the polling is honest or not.
Rasmussen, for instance, has become notorious in the past few years for putting a thumb on the scales to reflect his personal political opinion. Others weight the poll incorrectly. For instance, the African-American vote in 2008 was reported at 14%, the census finds the A-A vote to be about 12%, but some pollsters are weighting the A-A vote to 10%. Extremely subtle, and not noticeable unless you dig REAL deep into the poll and read the methodology (if it's even available, at no cost or at some cost).
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