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Marriage equality poll watch: Minnesota and Washington
July 24, 2012
By Jacob Combs
Polling firm SurveyUSA last week released two new polls regarding the likelihood of success for marriage equality in both Minnesota and Washington state this November. In Minnesota, SurveyUSA found that 52 percent of likely voters would vote for an anti-marriage equality amendment, with 37 percent saying that would vote against it. Six percent were unsure, and the poll’s margin error was 4.3 percent. In Washington, SurveyUSA found that a law to uphold marriage equality in the state would pass by a 50-43 percent margin, albeit with 7 percent of respondents unsure of their vote and a margin of error of 4 percent.
As always, reading too much into single polls is almost certain to result in a skewed picture of the political reality. For example, Public Policy Polling released a poll last month that showed Minnesota failing by a 49-43 percent margin. A PPP poll in Washington found marriage equality passing by a 51-42 percent margin.
What these polls show, really, is that all of the marriage campaigns across the country are almost guaranteed to be decided on a close margin, and the campaigns that will lead up to them will make a difference. Nevertheless, it’s a good sign that these polls, on the aggregate, don’t show us losing ground, or will significant deficits in support to make up, as we did in North Carolina. Moving forward, however, it’s in our best interest to look at the way the polls are trending, and not read too much into any one poll itself.
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14 Comments Leave a Comment
1.
Alexjon | July 24, 2012 at 8:16 am
The SUSA poll shows +3 since January in WA and a shift in their sample, more sampled in Eastern WA, slightly fewer cell phone users.
2.
Bill S. | July 24, 2012 at 8:41 am
Wow this is really not good…I am not getting my hopes up. Most people are just not going to vote for something unless they personally benefit from it.
3.
Bob | July 24, 2012 at 8:57 am
Mitt gets worse great video
http://youtu.be/77okLyAooCA
4.
Sagesse | July 24, 2012 at 9:20 am
@
5.
Stephen | July 24, 2012 at 9:26 am
Sorry, This article is confusing to me. Are we losing in Minnesota, but winning in Washington? Please clarify.
6.
Jamie | July 24, 2012 at 9:50 am
The latest poll shows Minnesota residents will overwhelmingly vote to ban gay and lesbian citizens from equal rights related to marriage and enshrine discrimination and bigotry into their state constitution. How's that
7.
Leo | July 24, 2012 at 10:31 am
Please elaborate. For example, are you imputing some expectation of personal benefit to the people who voted for Prop 8 and other anti-gay amendments?
8.
Bob | July 24, 2012 at 10:59 am
sounds way off track,,,,,,,, anti American,,,,,,,
9.
Seth from Maryland | July 24, 2012 at 11:23 am
sounds like to me this polling data is way off, im going to wait ppp's data
10.
Bill S. | July 24, 2012 at 11:25 am
If the status quo doesn't hurt people then they will lean towards voting for that…and especially so when they're told that changing the status quo will cause gay people to invade schools and recruit your children.
While most people probably aren't foaming at the mouth anti-gay they truly believe that "if it ain't broke (to them), don't fix it" and that there is nothing wrong with "upholding tradition." The ick factor plays a big part too…people just can't get over the fact that while they may personally not want to enter into a same-sex relationship, their aversion to them does not translate into moral superiority.
People will not willingly vote to give minorities rights…perhaps once they've been forced to recognize the equality of minorities for several years will they finally come around. For example, I highly doubt Massachusetts would ever vote to ban gay marriage even if they were ever given the chance…but if their judicial branch didn't mandate it then they probably wouldn't have voted it in either.
11.
Straight Ally #3008 | July 24, 2012 at 11:56 am
This really ticks me off. No doubt we're closer to the tipping point, but November 2012 is probably still too soon. The continued blockage of civil rights is bad enough; the crowing by the OMM-NOM-NOM crowd will just about make me puke.
12.
Matt N | July 24, 2012 at 11:57 am
Also, keep in mind that the SUSA poll just a month before Ref 71 in Washington state (vote to allow full domestic partnerships) was exactly the same, and voters approved that 53-47. There is reason to be hopeful, but we need to keep up the pressure.
13.
F Young | July 24, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Yes, Stephen, these polls suggest that gays and lesbians are losing in Minnesotta but winning in Washington state.
14.
Mike in Baltimore | July 29, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Except when Prop H8 was passed, it overturned the status quo, which was marriage equality.
So by arguing for the status quo being upheld and arguing that people will not overturn the status quo, you are ignoring Prop H8, which overturned the status quo.
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