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Updates from Minnesota, Maine and Maryland as marriage equality referenda gain speed
June 8, 2012
By Jacob Combs
November may be months away, but the campaign for marriage equality in states around the country is heating up, with votes in Washington, Maryland, Maine and Minnesota looking almost certain to occur. I wrote yesterday about updates in Washington state, where opponents have filed the necessary signatures required to put Referendum 74 on the ballot (final certification of those signatures is expected next week) and where polling has showed good news for marriage equality advocates.
In Maryland, according to the Washington Post, a ballot initiative on marriage looks virtually certain, with an unofficial tally at the Maryland State Board of Elections website showing a count of 70,039 valid signatures, more than the 55,636 opponents of marriage equality needed to collect. Polling in the state has shown a remarkable shift in public opinion on the issue in the state, especially among African-Americans, moving the state from one which marriage looked certain to lose to one in which the vote will likely be a close contest.
In Minnesota, Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton and his sons, Eric and Andrew, have committed themselves to fight against a proposed constitutional amendment that would ban marriage equality. Minnesotans United for All Families, a pro-marriage equality group, announced earlier this week that through June 12, the Dayton brothers would match all donations to the campaign up to $200,000. In an email to supporters, the brothers wrote: ”It’s simple: Committed, same-sex couples should have the freedom to marry. Together, we can contribute $400,000 toward Minnesotans United’s efforts to protect that freedom.” Gov. Dayton will be holding his own fundraiser for the marriage quality campaign on June 19. As in Maryland, polling in Minnesota has shown a remarkable shift in opinion against the amendment, and our side is helped by a quirk of Minnesota law that counts ballots with constitutional amendment decisions left blank as no votes.
And finally, in Maine, today is the last day to participate in another matched donation campaign for marriage equality sponsored by Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes and his partner Sean Eldridge.
There will no doubt be many moneybombs and donation drives for marriage equality in the next few months, some of which Prop8TrialTracker.com will participate directly in. In the meantime, though, these matched donations are excellent opportunities to give our side a leg up going into what will likely be a series of difficult battles across the country. Marriage equality advocates have a good chance of making 2012 the year in which we turn the tide, but it takes all of us, working together, to make that happen.
Having technical problems? E-mail equalityontrial AT couragecampaign DOT org for assistance!
13 Comments Leave a Comment
1.
Sagesse | June 8, 2012 at 8:15 am
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2.
Michael | June 8, 2012 at 9:28 am
Good to hear that, and thanks for the prompt update.<img src=http://www.mobilediscount.info/ikea/sso.jpg> <img src=http://www.mobilediscount.info/xbox/xss.jpg>
3.
Straight Ally #3008 | June 8, 2012 at 9:37 am
I suggest putting the link to the Maine fundraising site for convenience. Any idea how close we are to the maximum matched funds amounts?
4.
Seth from Maryland | June 8, 2012 at 9:52 am
New Florida PPP poll: -Like voters in most of the country Floridians are moving on gay marriage. They're still narrowly against it with 45% opposed and 42% supportive. But that three point margin represents an 8 point shift from last September when 48% were opposed and just 37% in support. This very much looks to be an Obama effect. Republicans and independents have moved very little on the issue but Democrats have moved 20 points from +15 support (48/33) to +35 support (61/26). The most dramatic movement has been among African Americans who've shifted 48 points from being opposed -30 in the fall (23/53) to now supporting it by 18 points (49/31).
72% of Florida voters support either gay marriage or civil unions, with only 26% opposed to any form of legal recognition. Even 61% of Republicans support some form of legal recognition for same sex couples.
5.
EricKoszyk | June 8, 2012 at 11:20 am
did some number crunching regarding the 2009 and 2008 general elections in Washington State.
I was concerned that the turnout for the 2009 election might have been more favorable for our side (for Approve Referendum 71) since there were several highly contested mayoral races in several big cities, including in Seattle (I know because I volunteered on one in addition to Approve 71). I thought that this might have influenced the outcome, since the cities might have voted in higher numbers than the rural areas.
What I found out was that this was not the case. Conservative areas had a higher turnout than in progressive areas, which is usual for an odd numbered year, when there isn't a presidential or gubernatorial election.
When we compare the 2009 and 2008 elections, we see that every county in the state had a higher turnout in 2008 than in 2009. In 2009 the turnout was 50.89% whereas in 2008 turnout was 84.61%.
More importantly, if you take all the counties which voted for us in 2009 and used the 2008 turnout as a model, we should actually add 147,217 overall votes to our column.
How I arrived at these numbers:
I looked at the counties that voted for/ against Referendum 71:
http://vote.wa.gov/results/20091103/Referendum-Me…
and subtracted the 2009 turnout
http://vote.wa.gov/results/20091103/Turnout.html
from the 2008 turnout
http://vote.wa.gov/results/20081104/Turnout.html
I did this twice, for the counties that Approved 71 and for those that Rejected 71. Then I added up the turnout differences and subtracted the smaller number (Rejected) from the larger (Approved).
An important thing to remember is that, in WA, everybody votes by mail (as it was in 2009). After you get your ballot you have about two weeks to either mail it back or to take it to a collection point within your county. So we can assume that turnout this year will be about 85% or even slightly more.
Now I know that Referendum 74 will not be the exact same campaign as Referendum 71 was, but at least we can know that an increased turnout should help us. And since the anti-71 side made that referendum all about same sex marriage, we have a great chance of winning this, with a lot of hard work.
(for what it's worth, in 2009, Seattle's turn out was 57.73%, not that much larger than King County's 53.18%. By way of comparison, in 2008, Seattle's turnout was 86%, compared to 83.93% for King County as a whole. King County has about a third of the state's voters and supported Referendum 71, 68-32%.)
6.
truthspew | June 8, 2012 at 6:42 pm
And this afternoon I attended the Netroots Nation Marriage Equality Caucus today. Looks like just 1 of those or all of those will enable us to eliminate NOM's last talking point.
7.
Lymis | June 9, 2012 at 8:35 am
It's that sort of 72% that I hold the most hope for – when DOMA falls, the idea that "civil unions give all the same rights as marriage so why rock the boat?" is going to collapse, and a significant number of those people will come over to the marriage equality side in relatively short order once they realize their church is not going to be required to perform a wedding it disapproves of.
8.
Bill S. | June 10, 2012 at 7:48 am
I am confident that we will win at least one, if not all, of these ballot measures but they will be CLOSE. Like recount close. Like within 1,000 votes close. Every vote will matter.
If Obama is re-elected and all of these ballot measures succeed for the pro-gay side, this will be the very last general election in American history where anti-gay rhetoric can be used for political cachet.
9.
Straight Ally #3008 | June 10, 2012 at 9:54 am
I didn't think I'd see that day until I was old(er) and gray, if that. As frustrating as this is, I can't think of another social issue that has progressed so rapidly.
10.
Rich | June 10, 2012 at 10:18 am
NOM says it will have a major presence in Maine. Can't wait to see the attempts. This state is no friend to NOM, especially since NOM's tactics were revealed in bold print in our state's largest newspapers and it continues to defy (Maine) court order to reveal its donors. Bring it on NOM, thousands of us are ready to engage you in the fight.
11.
NancyH | June 10, 2012 at 10:58 am
Thank the Flying Spaghetti Monster for Mark Dayton. If he had lost, Minnesota would be as screwed over as Wisconsin is.
12.
Seth from Maryland | June 10, 2012 at 11:27 am
Republican Billionaire Funds Pro-Marriage Equality Super-PAC:Billionaire hedge fund manager, Paul E. Singer, 67, is among the Republican party's most important donors.
In a move that, over time, may change the Republican political landscape, Singer is providing $1 million to start a new “super PAC”; its sole mission will be to encourage Republican candidates to support same-sex marriage.
More after the jump.
Named American Unity PAC, the super-PAC will help to shield pro-marriage equality GOP candidates from finacial repercussions they may face from well-funded groups that oppose same-sex marriage.
http://instinctmagazine.com/blogs/blog/republican…
13.
Seth from Maryland | June 10, 2012 at 11:30 am
Paul singer is now to play balll this year , Nom better be worried , we will win
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