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Why North Carolina is different–and important
March 26, 2012
Community/Meta Marriage equality
By Jacob Combs
Of all the electoral prizes up for grabs in 2012 when it comes to marriage equality (and at this point it looks like there will be five), North Carolina might seem like the one with the lowest stakes. Unlike Maryland, Maine and Washington, the most positive outcome in North Carolina doesn’t mean marriage equality becomes a reality. North Carolina state law already bans marriage for gay and lesbian couples, and the state does not offer civil unions. Amendment One is a deeply flawed proposal, but a no vote might appear on the surface like something that would do little to change the status quo or improve the lives of LGBT couples in North Carolina. Why, then, is the ballot measure so important?
In an associated press article published yesterday, Tom Breen calls North Carolina “a discordant note in the Southern choir.” Every other state in the South has passed a constitutional amendment banning marriage equality, with North Carolina the only holdout. The distinction between state laws banning marriage and constitutional marriage bans is more than just semantic: a state court can strike an anti-marriage statute down as unconstitutional, but a constitutional amendment stymies the judiciary’s ability to provide equal protection rights to LGBT couples. State laws can be amended by legislators; constitutional amendments must be repealed by the voters themselves. In this way, if Amendment One were to pass, it would make North Carolina an even less friendly place to LGBT couples, and would mea the eventual path to marriage equality in the state would be longer and more difficult.
More importantly, though, North Carolina differs both demographically and in its political philosophy from the rest of the South. Democrats controlled at least one chamber of the state legislature for over a century until 2010, blocking constitutional marriage bans when they arose. Desegregation in North Carolina took place without the violence endured by other Southern states; Barack Obama won the state’s 15 electoral votes in 2008.
In other words: out of all the Southern states, North Carolina seems the most natural choice to reflect the growing support for marriage equality across the U.S. by bucking the tradition set by its neighbors and defeating a marriage ban. A win for our side in North Carolina would show that the momentum for marriage equality truly is building, and that the coalition of voters from all walks of life that support the right to marry can make a difference and defeat an odious measure like Amendment One. This victory may seem largely symbolic, but it is in fact extremely practical as well. The last time a marriage amendment was considered in a Southern state was in 2008. Amendment One has re-opened the marriage conversation in the South, and now that it is 2012 and much has changed in the last four years, the opportunity is ripe to reach out to citizens and change minds and hearts.
It will be an difficult battle. When the proposed amendment was moved up from the November ballot to the May primary ballot, election watchers believed that a contested Republican primary might bring out more voters who would approve of the amendment, leading to its passage. But Democratic Gov. Bev Purdue’s retirement means that there will be a Democratic primary on the May ballot as well, which should make the Amendment One question more competitive.
Courage Campaign is joining a netroots moneybomb this week to help the Coalition to Protect NC Families, which is working to defeat Amendment One, get a response ad on the air. The No on One campaign needs to raise $1 million to get its ads on the air on April 1–you can click on the thermometer at the top of this post or this link to contribute!
Also, at 3 pm EST today, P8TT will host campaign manager Jeremy Kennedy to take your questions and suggestions. Please tune in then for info on how the Amendment One campaign is going and how you can help out.
UPDATE (3/27): In the interest of full disclosure, and in response to some readers’ comments, I wanted to update this post to go into more depth about the polling issues regarding Amendment One. In my original post, I cited an Elon University poll that said 54 percent of respondents opposed the amendment, with 38 percent supporting it. Some commenters called the Elon poll flawed, and pointed out correctly that two other polls from WRAL and PPP which presented voters with the language of the constitutional amendment itself told a different story, with margins in favor of approving the measure of 58/36 and 56/34 respectively.
It was never my intent to highlight only the results of the poll that shows positive news for our side, and my original post made the point that even in spite of that poll, it would be a difficult campaign to defeat Amendment One. Nevertheless, the different results of the three polls, in my opinion, demonstrates even more clearly why North Carolina is such an important place for the marriage movement to focus on in the next month. While we may be losing on the exact wording of the amendment, the Elon poll shows that we have a chance at winning on the issues if we can educate voters as to just how damaging Amendment One would be, not only for gay couples, but also for unmarried straight couples, the elderly, and children. The North Carolina campaign is about shifting demographics, voter education and laying the groundwork for a future in which the marriage movement can gain the upper hand when it comes to protecting children and their families’ rights. That is why, to me, North Carolina presents an incredible opportunity for advancement, even if the fight looks tough as we approach May 8.
NC Amendment 1 Graphic
Having technical problems? E-mail equalityontrial AT couragecampaign DOT org for assistance!
50 Comments Leave a Comment
1.
Ann S. | March 26, 2012 at 9:03 am
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2.
Sagesse | March 26, 2012 at 9:16 am
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3.
Jamie | March 26, 2012 at 9:28 am
The polls from Elon University are severely flawed. When presented with the wording of the amendment, exactly as it appears on the ballot, 65% of North Carolinians support it. It will take huge sums of money and an alternate reality to convince North Carolina voters that they are banning civil unions given the language of the amendment that appears to just "affirm" marriage.
4.
jpmassar | March 26, 2012 at 9:42 am
I don't know where you are getting your numbers. I've never seen 65%. The latest two polls, one of likely voters and one of registered voters, show 58% and 56% support the amendment, respectively. Not that that is encouraging, but 65% is way off the mark.
http://www.wral.com/news/state/nccapitol/story/10…
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_R…
5.
jpmassar | March 26, 2012 at 9:44 am
What is the meaning / purpose of this comment? I've been meaning (heh) to ask forever now.
6.
Jamie | March 26, 2012 at 9:50 am
I'm sorry, I guess 56% supporting the amendment and 36% opposed is better. OK.
…and the ads about how gay marriage will be taught is school haven't even started!
7.
Adam Bink | March 26, 2012 at 9:53 am
Yeah, I heard the same thing about the personhood measure in Mississippi, which passed overwhelmingly last year in such a Conservative Southern State.
Oh, wait.
I'm not being flippant with you, just trying to make the point that an overwhelming amount of messaging directed to voters can change perception, which was the lesson in Mississippi ("they'll ban your birth control" "they'll send you to prison if you fall down the stairs and have a miscarriage"). That was nowhere in the personhood initiative language… and yet, it because the dominant narrative. That's why the campaign needs resources to get on the air and in people's mailboxes and at their doors.
8.
Sagesse | March 26, 2012 at 10:20 am
Depending on how a person logs in, sometimes there is no way to subscribe without leaving a comment. So, when I am on my iPad during the day, I have to leave a comment. The symbol is just shorthand for 'subscribing'. From my computer at home, I can and do subscribe without leaving a comment.
Ain't technology grand?
9.
Scott Wooledge | March 26, 2012 at 10:25 am
I'd add, I haven't spoken to a single person who predicted that the NH repeal effort would fail to clear the NH House.
That it failed to pass was a pleasant surprise. That it was literally destroyed almost 2 to 1 was unthinkable.
If you had predicted 119 Republicans would vote against it, they'd have gotten the butterfly net.
I think pleasant surprises can always happen.
10.
jpmassar | March 26, 2012 at 11:06 am
Upsets happen. Nonetheless, relying on the improbable is not generally an optimal strategy…
11.
Mark | March 26, 2012 at 11:15 am
I admire this site for its willingness to be candid & honest–and in that respect am troubled by the last few posts on North Carolina. The posts have repeatedly highlighted the Elon polls, which as commenters have noted, do not actually poll the question being asked. The posts have ignored the polls that actually have polled the question–PPP and WRAL– which show the amendment passing overwhelmingly (if by a slightly closer margin that a few months ago). Moreover, unlike ME, WA, and MN, in NC a critical element of the Democratic base (African-Americans) is quite supportive of enshrining discrimination into the state constitution, which makes our task all the harder. And the primary vote age demographic is unlikely to be favorable.
It would be great to win here. But minimizing just how long the odds are, it seems to me, does no one any good–and will make it harder to deem credible analysis P8TT offers this fall of ME, MN, WA, and MD.
12.
Jamie | March 26, 2012 at 11:29 am
Hmmm, I don't actually ever remember seeing polls stating that the personhood amendment ever enjoyed 56% support in Mississippi.
Interesting that you brought up the messaging that worked there though. "They'll ban YOUR birth control" and "they'll send YOU to prison." It's interesting that the only other time that one of these anti-gay marriage amendments was defeated, was because it used similar messaging. Let's check out the messaging from the "no on one" (Protect All NC Families campaign) to see who they say are going to be affected: other people, other people's children, children of gay people, gay people themselves. I don't see anything on their website about how YOUR rights are going to be affected.
Maybe gay and lesbian North Carolinians need to stop making this about themselves, and do what it takes to win instead. Until then, I'll keep this one in the sure loser column.
13.
Jamie | March 26, 2012 at 11:35 am
Amen.
14.
Jamie | March 26, 2012 at 11:39 am
It appears my post was deleted that showed that the amendment was polling at 64% support. I wonder why. It's pretty disappointing, It seems like the truth about this amendment's shots at being defeated are intentionally being misrepresented in order to score some money. This is exactly what we don't like about the other side.
15.
Richard Lyon | March 26, 2012 at 11:42 am
It's still there. Your conspiracy theories aren't going to hold up very well. Just what is your agenda here?
16.
Adam Bink | March 26, 2012 at 11:45 am
Actually, the campaign's messaging has been about children all along, as well as the harmful impact on business when people leave the state. That's why a number of major corporations have come out against the amendment. It has never been "just" about gays and lesbians.
17.
Adam Bink | March 26, 2012 at 11:46 am
Jumping to conclusions about some kind of censorship is unwarranted. Comments get accidentally over-moderated by our commenting system all the time. Send your comment to the tech team.
18.
Richard Lyon | March 26, 2012 at 11:49 am
It seems to me that a very constructive approach would be to give high visibility the lesbian and gay families of color. The media is latching onto to simplistic narrative that this is a war between black Christians and white gays. We need to make sure that an alternative narrative gets aired.
19.
Adam Bink | March 26, 2012 at 11:51 am
Very good point.
20.
Jamie | March 26, 2012 at 11:56 am
Maybe you could show me that campaign, because it's not on their website.
21.
Mark | March 26, 2012 at 11:58 am
I'm wondering if either Adam or Jacob could explain why the last two posts' only discussion of polling references not the two firms (WRAL and PPP) that have polled the wording upon which NC residents will vote, but instead an Elon poll that didn't use the amendment's actual wording.
To reiterate my earlier comment: I don't see how anyone benefits from an impression that victory in NC is likelier than it actually is.
22.
Scott Wooledge | March 26, 2012 at 11:58 am
I'm just confused by your use of the word "relying." No one is relying on anything.
Ultimately, I just don't think a high probability of losing (which I agree exists) means that we should abandon NC altogether, as some national organizations have, and many grassroots groups and individuals have.
If someone gave $100 to Prop 8 in 2008, I don't see why they can't give $20 to NC.
You don't get the pleasantly surprising upsets unless you work for them.
23.
Phillip K | March 26, 2012 at 12:08 pm
On the same token, when do you say that those funds could be put to better use in states that have a better chance of success?
I wish I could give money to every campaign but when it comes down to it, I have to go for the ones that show some reasonable chance of success.
24.
Jamie | March 26, 2012 at 12:23 pm
Mark, your facts are getting in the way of fundraising! No one wants to fund a campaign that has no hopes of winning, you might as well put your money in a hole and light it on fire!
25.
Ann S. | March 26, 2012 at 1:02 pm
Sagesse, how do you subscribe without leaving a comment? I haven't been able to. Thanks.
26. Truth Wins Out - Help Pro&hellip | March 26, 2012 at 1:02 pm
[...] Blend, Joe.My.God, Good As You, New Civil Rights Movement, Daily Kos, the Human Rights Campaign, Prop 8 Trial Tracker, Back 2 Stonewall, and AmericaBlog, is coming together in a “blogswarm” to help raise [...]
27.
Scott Wooledge | March 26, 2012 at 1:15 pm
To people who are really hurting, sure.
But a win in NC could really set the ball rolling in the right direction in the other four states six months later is my point.
So, if someone is contemplating if they can part with $5, $10, $20 in March, it may be a very good investment for in a future victory in November.
28.
Jamie | March 26, 2012 at 1:15 pm
Why? Because it makes you feel better, or because that actually improves the chances of the amendment being defeated?
29.
Sagesse | March 26, 2012 at 1:17 pm
I created an account at Intense Debate, and subscribe through that account. For some reason, that's not an option on my iPad (because it's a mobile device?). My Word Press account doesn't work for subscribing to comments.
30.
Adam Bink | March 26, 2012 at 1:26 pm
It's an honest question. We wouldn't ask people to invest in a campaign we didn't think we could win. The answer: polls that poll specific amendment language are obviously critical. If in addition to that you showed me a poll that asked "do you want to ban civil unions and domestic partnerships and marriage for same-sex couples?" and 64% said yes, I would say we are in deep trouble. That's not what happened, though, and the Elon poll shows if we can link a No vote with fairness and a Yes vote with homophobia, that's what people will remember in the voting booth. That's what they will tell their family and friends. Remember how many people walk into the voting booth with an intent to vote regardless of what they read on the screen. Our mission is to link what Yes and No mean. That's why resources are so important. There is a path to victory that nay-sayers just refuse to acknowledge because all they point to is one poll and a date on the calendar.
31.
Adam Bink | March 26, 2012 at 1:29 pm
One more point: Prop 107 in Arizona in 2006 had EXTREMELY similar language to this amendment. The overwhelming consensus of why it went down to defeat (notably the first and only marriage amendment to go down, though a marriage-only version later passed) is because the campaign focused on the harms of banning civil unions to same-sex and opposite-sex couples. Its campaign chair, Krysten Sinema (bisexual) was later elected to State Senate and is running for Congress. Here we are six years later and if anyone thinks that strategy won't work again, I believe they are mistaken.
32. Prop 8 Trial Tracker &raq&hellip | March 26, 2012 at 1:30 pm
[...] the South, and North Carolina particularly, is a great place to start hitting back on this, as Jacob Combs says: More importantly, though, North Carolina differs both demographically and in its political [...]
33.
Bryce from DC and KS | March 26, 2012 at 1:33 pm
As great as this site has been up until now, it has been very depressing in the past few days.
34.
Bryce from DC and KS | March 26, 2012 at 1:37 pm
That just isn't true. Very few people who talked to NH legislators (nor scholars of state politics) were certain (or even thought it probable) that the marriage repeal would pass. Even if support had been there, it faced an inevitable veto, and unlike NJ there was no chance of a veto override or referenda.
Scott, where are you even getting your information?
35.
Scott Wooledge | March 26, 2012 at 1:52 pm
I wouldn't question your decision not to donate if you didn't feel it was worthwhile to you.
I do question why it seems important to you, or anyone, to actively evangelize against other people donating?
I don't think anyone is arguing that victory is LIKELY. We're all agreed it's a tough road.
Maybe its just me, I think people can afford to donate what they think it's worth to them. If it's worth 20 bucks to them, well, that's not a lot of money, like one Friday night at the movies.
In the past, I've certainly dropped money here and there on people and causes I really I thought were hopeless, just to show support and be a good team member.
36.
Jamie | March 26, 2012 at 1:56 pm
The point is honesty. The polls showing this amendment winning by a significant amount are being ignored for polls that are based on questionable tactics.
People aren't just being asked to donate. They are shown dubious polls showing that the amendment is likely to be defeated and then asked to donate. You understand the difference?
37.
Scott Wooledge | March 26, 2012 at 2:23 pm
Polls change. Two months ago Herman Cain was going to be the GOP nominee and before that Mississippi was going to pass a personhood amendment.
If polls are the only metric that you care about, and you are convinced they arrive written in stone, I can understand being cynical.
I personally think other things do matter and are capable of effecting the ultimate outcome. And it did happen on a very similar amendment in Arizona in 2006 which was voted down.
38.
Mark | March 26, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Thanks for the reply, although this doesn't really answer why the last two NC posts haven't mentioned the polls that show the amendment cruising to victory while highlighting ("a recent poll looks good for our side") the poll that shows that maybe there's a chance for victory if things break our way. People who follow this closely would know of the WRAL and PPP roles. But if a reader just relied on P8TT, they'd think that the polls are looking "good for our side," when in reality they aren't.
I've always thought of P8TT as an honest site. I don't think posts that deliberately choose not to mention polls showing our side losing by 20 points conform to P8TT's standards.
39.
Jamie | March 26, 2012 at 2:40 pm
Again, that's not the point. The article uses polls that ask the question in a clearly leading way and then say this is indicative of the situation. It isn't. The truth is that were the election held tomorrow, 56% of NC would vote to ban gay people from marriage, civil unions, and domestic partnerships.
If your point is that polls, change, then perhaps start with the poll that ACCURATELY provides a picture of where we are, then say polls change. Don't push the "push poll"
40.
Glen | March 26, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Place your cursor over the little orange square in the upper right corner at the top of the comments section. It will open a window where you can put in your E-mail address to subscribe.
41.
Jamie | March 26, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Prop 107 was defeated because they used the right language: "YOUR rights are going to be affected." People care about themselves and how this affects them. Frankly, they don't care about gay people, their children, or even seniors (by and large). Generally, people will screw over whoever they can in order to protect their rights against perceived threats. Begging for them to treat gay people with dignity and compassion isn't going to win a political campaign. The fact that this amendment will hurt them, their kids, their grandparents, and their job – MIGHT. Where is that message? It's not on the campaign website. When it gets there, I might donate money.
42.
Phillip K | March 26, 2012 at 3:26 pm
You don't have to be financially hurting to know when a bad investment.
I'd like to say that it's worth it in NC but it seems to me to be wasting resources that could be better spent elsewhere. Sometimes you have to know when to fold and cut your losses for another day.
43.
Jacob Combs | March 27, 2012 at 8:39 am
Sorry it took me so long to get in on this discussion. I just updated the post with some more thoughts about polling which I hope will explain why I made the initial decision I did in writing the post and lay out my thoughts further. I had no agenda in presenting the Elon poll without the others–in fact, I didn't consider polling very important to the issue which I brought up in this post. I do hope that my update addresses those issues, and I want to thank everyone who shared their opinions.
In terms of comments being 'censored,' sometimes our filters get overzealous. We just determined last week that comments with the word 'socialist' were being deleted because they contain the letters cialis,' which is banned on the site. We fixed that issue. If you feel that a comment has been deleted unfairly, email the tech team. We always look into these inquiries, and if a mistake has been made, we will make sure to get those comments back up on the site.
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law | September 11, 2012 at 3:54 am
I have no idea
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